基于迁移扩散过程模拟的在产园区重金属污染风险动态评价
Dynamic Evaluation of Heavy Metal Pollution Risk in Production Parks Based on Migration and Diffusion Processes Simulation
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摘要: 在产化工园区土壤-地下水系统中重金属污染的环境风险与健康风险受到广泛关注。目前的风险评价主要基于现状监测数据，缺少基于迁移扩散过程的动态风险评价。本文以某在产园区为研究对象。研究区地下水中的重金属浓度普遍较低，仅有铅(Pb)在部分点位超出了国家地下水质量标准Ⅲ类水的限值，超标率为21.42%。此外，重金属浓度的变异系数普遍超过50%，表明地质条件和企业生产活动对其有显著影响。基于研究区地下水重金属的污染特征，考虑反应性过程，运用TOUGHREACT对园区地下水中3种典型重金属汞(Hg)、铅(Pb)与砷(As)进行迁移扩散模拟，并结合人体健康风险评估模型，动态评估了重金属的健康风险。基于水文地质条件和反应性过程构建的重金属迁移扩散数值模型能够较好识别园区重金属Hg、Pb与As的迁移与衰减过程，浓度计算值与观测值间的决定系数分别为0.93、0.99与0.83，相关性较好。结合过程模拟的地下水健康风险评价结果表明，模拟期2020年8月至2021年3月间，在反应性运移作用下，地下水中Hg、Pb与As污染风险不断降低。在模拟预测期Pb与As所引起的健康风险持续降低，模型预测在2025年4月后，研究区由As饮水途径引起的终身超额致癌风险将降低至1×10-6以下，潜在风险消除。Abstract: Heavy metal contamination in the soil-groundwater system of industrialized chemical parks poses significant environmental and health risks. Current risk evaluations rely primarily on monitoring data and lack dynamic assessments based on migration and diffusion processes. This study focuses on an active industrial park. Although heavy metal concentrations in the groundwater are generally low, lead (Pb) exceeds the Class Ⅲ water quality standard at some points, with an exceedance rate of 21.42%. The coefficients of variation for heavy metal concentrations exceed 50%, indicating substantial impacts from geological conditions and industrial activities. TOUGHREACT, incorporating reactive processes, was used to simulate the migration and diffusion of mercury (Hg), Pb, and arsenic (As) in the groundwater. This simulation was integrated with a human health risk assessment model to evaluate health risks dynamically. The numerical model effectively identifies the transport and attenuation of Hg, Pb, and As, with coefficients of determination of 0.93, 0.99, and 0.83, respectively. The groundwater health risk evaluation, combined with process simulation, indicates that from August 2020 to March 2021, the risk of contamination decreased due to reactive transport. The health risks from Pb and As continued to decline during the simulation period. The model predicts that by April 2025, the lifetime excess cancer risk from As via drinking water will fall below 1×10-6, effectively eliminating the potential risk.
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