页岩气开发地块污染物的种群生态风险评估模型分析
Exploring Application of Population Ecological Risk Assessment Models for Contaminants in Shale Gas Development Plots
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摘要: 页岩气资源气藏结构相对复杂，生态环境相对脆弱，环境影响机理不清等一系列环境问题已成为制约我国页岩气开发的重要瓶颈，目前我国对页岩气开发地块的生态风险评估研究极少，远未能形成技术体系。由于个体之间、个体与环境之间存在相互作用，个体水平的生态风险评估往往无法全面地反映化学污染物质对生态环境的整体影响，因此开展种群层面的生态风险评估对提高其风险准确性具有重要作用。本文在通过聚类分析方法了解种群生态风险评估领域的热点和发展趋势的基础上，借助文献计量方法较系统地梳理了有关种群层面的生态风险评估模型的内容，对比分析并筛选可适用于我国典型页岩气开发区域特征污染物的种群生态风险评估模型并探讨了其在页岩气开发场景的可用性及不确定性，旨在为我国这类污染场地环境风险防控提供借鉴。Abstract: A series of environmental issues such as the relatively complex structure of gas reservoirs, the comparatively fragile ecological environment and the unclear environmental impact mechanisms have become significant bottlenecks, restricting the development of shale gas in China. At present, there are still very few studies on ecological risk assessment of shale gas development sites in China, and it is far from forming a technical system. Due to the interaction between individuals and between the environment and individuals, ecological risk assessment at the individual level often cannot fully reflect the overall impact of chemical pollutants on the ecological environment, and therefore, carrying out ecological risk assessment at the population level plays an important role in improving the accuracy of the assessment. In this paper, based on the hotspots and development trends in the field of population ecological risk assessment through cluster analysis, we systematically sort out the content of population-level ecological risk assessment models using bibliometric methods. The population ecological risk assessment models that are suitable for characteristic pollutants in typical shale gas development areas in China are compared and screened, and the availability and uncertainty of these models in shale gas development scenarios are discussed, aiming to provide references for the prevention and control of environmental risks in such contaminated sites in China.
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